In the presentation 'Internal Learning Mechanisms and the Generation of Complex Economic Time Series' at the 10th Tinbergen Institute Conference 2015, Blake LeBaron (Brandeis University), illustrates the importance of high gain (short memory) volatility forecasts. Moreover, he clarifies how economic data selects many memory lengths. Here you can see the slides LeBaron used.
Blake LeBaron is the Abram L. and Thelma Sachar Chair of International Economics at the International Business School, Brandeis University. LeBaron's research has concentrated on the issue of nonlinear behavior of financial and macroeconomic time series. LeBaron's current interests are in understanding the quantitative dynamics of interacting systems of adaptive agents and how these systems replicate observed real world phenomenon. Also, LeBaron is interested in understanding some of the observed behavioral characteristics of traders in financial markets.
The objective of the Tinbergen Institute Conference 2015 was (1) to introduce a broad economic public to the complex systems approach, in particular applied to macroeconomic and financial systems; and (2) to increase understanding and foster collaboration between the different sciences in the analysis of economics and finance.
Check out the presentation for more...