Webinar - Scenario Thinking and Complexity
Conny Dorrestijn moderates the session. Guests are Yvonne Sijm, Lex Hoogduin and Rik Berbé.
There is an increasing interest for working with scenario's. More and more organizations are exploring possible futures. Even city 'planners' are involving stakeholders to co-shape scenarios for neighborhoods, districts and cities. People start to understand such scenarios help to change mental models. Scenarios do NOT help to predict the future, they help to train our minds. Understanding that we will be surprised, positive or negative and support in fine-tuning courses of action. There are at least 3 ways to shape scenarios.
1] Scenarios are essential to decide and carry out a course of action
2] Scenarios are needed to detect surprises and assess the position within the environment
3] Scenarios are useful to remain viable after negative surprises (stresstest, reverse stress test)
Co-shaping these scenarios is a mix of using ratio, intuition and creativity. It is important to involve a variety and diversity of people involved in the process. Such a process should be comprehensive, participatory, qualitative and imaginative.